The Path to Signing: How the Farm Bill 2.0 Becomes Law

## What's still required For the Farm Bill 2.0 to become law, all of the following must happen: ### Step 1: Senate Agriculture Committee markup ☐ The Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee (Chair: John Boozman R-AR) has not held a markup. They could: - Mark up the House-passed text directly (unusual) - Mark up a Senate companion bill (more common) - Hold hearings first, then markup later (most likely) **Realistic timing:** Late summer 2026 at earliest. ### Step 2: Senate floor passage ☐ Once the Senate Ag Committee approves a bill, it goes to the Senate floor. This requires: - 60 votes for cloture (to overcome a filibuster), almost certainly required for a farm bill - 51 votes for final passage The 60-vote threshold is the structural challenge. Republicans need at least 7 Democratic votes (assuming all Republicans vote yes) to clear cloture. **Realistic timing:** Fall 2026 at earliest. ### Step 3: Conference committee ☐ If House and Senate pass differing bills, a conference committee resolves the differences. The resulting "conference report" then goes back to both chambers. A conference can: - Adopt the House version of any provision - Adopt the Senate version - Find a middle ground - Add provisions not in either chamber's bill (rare, controversial) The conference is where industry lobbying gets most intense, because the conferees are a small group of senior Ag Committee members from both parties. **Realistic timing:** Late 2026 at earliest. ### Step 4: Both chambers re-pass the conference report ☐ Both the House and Senate must pass the *identical* conference report. No amendments allowed at this stage, it's an up-or-down vote. This is often where farm bills hit final political hurdles. The conference report is rarely satisfying to either side. ### Step 5: Presidential signature ☐ President Trump has signaled support for the House-passed bill. He could: - Sign it into law - Veto it (unlikely given his support) - Pocket veto by ignoring it for 10 days while Congress is adjourned A signature triggers implementation. ### Step 6: USDA regulations ☐ After signing, USDA has to write the implementing regulations for new programs. This typically takes 6–18 months for major changes. New programs (like the Forest Conservation Easement Program) require: - Notice of proposed rulemaking - Public comment period (60–90 days typical) - Review and finalization - Publication in the Federal Register **Realistic timing for new program enrollment:** Mid-2027 to early 2028. ## What could derail it ### Senate filibuster The 60-vote threshold is the biggest structural risk. If 7 Democrats won't vote for cloture, the bill dies. ### SNAP impasse If Senate Democrats refuse to provide cloture votes without SNAP cut delays, and Senate Republicans refuse to negotiate on H.R. 1 cuts, the bill stalls. ### Conference deadlock If the House and Senate bills are too different, particularly on Prop 12, E15, SNAP, conferees may fail to reach agreement. ### 2026 midterms If control of either chamber is in doubt before the election, leadership may delay floor votes to avoid politically risky positions. ### Another extension If the bill stalls, Congress can pass another extension of the 2018 farm bill (this would be the fourth). That's an admission of failure but politically easier than passing a real bill. ## Realistic scenario tree **Best case (≈25% probability):** Senate marks up by August 2026, passes by October, conference resolves quickly, final passage by year-end, signed in January 2027. **Moderate case (≈45% probability):** Senate marks up in fall 2026, passes early 2027, conference takes months, final passage mid-2027, signed late 2027. **Pessimistic case (≈20% probability):** Senate stalls, another extension is passed instead, real farm bill pushed to 2028. **Catastrophic case (≈10% probability):** Bill dies entirely, multiple extensions stretch into the 121st Congress. ## What you can do If you want to influence the outcome: 1. **Contact your Senators.** Senate Ag Committee members and members of leadership are the highest-leverage targets. 2. **Engage your trade associations.** They have the lobbyist relationships and policy staff to advance specific provisions. 3. **Submit comments during USDA rulemaking.** When implementation begins, public comment periods are when industry-specific changes get made.